April 21, 2024 - April 25, 2024
Last Updated: Sun. 11/03/2024
page #1276
page #1278
BOOK
MAP INDEX
| 4-25-2024 |
Loss Leader. It's nice to get constructive discussion from a critical thinker: "It's a loss leader when you include the lease buy-downs and discounts required to get a meaningful amount of real world data." That came about from a recent bZ4X review being discussed. Mixed within the usual rhetoric was that. Study of history should be required reading. There is an obvious pattern being repeated. I replied back stating: To be a loss-leader, there must be intent to lead... selling lots of vehicles at a loss to compete. Toyota isn't doing that. They have always had a low-volume plan... much to the chagrin of enthusiasts. Purpose is collecting data & feedback. By having some of their limited production sold at a discount, they are able to reach an even more diverse audience. It worked well for the 2024 model upgrade and should do the same for 2025. That's priceless experience prior to going all in with gen-2. Again, that approach was key to their success with Prius. Also, it should have been obvious BEV sales would hit a plateau as choices saturated the market. |
| 4-24-2024 |
Evade & Insult. It's getting bad. Things aren't going well for Tesla. That means I should expect amplified attacks. Outright dismissal ended up surprising me: "I can't trust anything written by a Toyota troll." That an admission of defeat. After so many years of FSD (Full Self Drive) promises that failed to ever deliver anything worthwhile, especially considering the cost, you can't attack Toyota with hydrogen or fuel-cell arguments. It's not a tit-for-tat situation. While struggle with Cybertruck gets worse, market conditions for going all out with hybrids are looking more and more favorable. Both Ford & GM are scaling back EV plans to also take on hybrids... probably because they see how unprofitable pickups with a plug are. Toyota is well positioned in that regard, well ahead of everyone else. Heck, there's even word that Hyundai may share their planned EV-only production in the United States with hybrids now. Needless to say, ignoring the situation won't help it, neither will shooting the messenger. Yet, that's what we are getting. I like to remind those doing that of the problem: Not sure how a head-in-the-sand reply helps the situation. Tesla must finally deliver something in the entry-level category. Choosing not to compete in the low-margin market means limited growth. |
| 4-24-2024 |
Come On. Gotta like when "Come on." is the entire post. Enthusiasts without patience don't mince words. If what's delivered doesn't meet their definition of success, they see it as an intentional squander. No other path makes sense to them. In their mind, approaches cannot vary. They are wrong, very wrong. I'm all too happy to remind them of their single-mindedness too: After 6 years of electric-only commutes, I sold my 2017 Prius Prime to my niece. Its EV drive and heat-pump were still working flawlessly... never any issue. That was undeniable proof Toyota had learned well from their plug-in start back in 2012 with their first Prius PHEV. Now after a year of driving a bZ4X, it's easy to spot critics who have little to nothing backing their claims. Capturing ODB-II data while I drive, it's obvious Toyota was way overprotective of the battery, trading longevity & energy conservation over the enthusiast priority of speed. Seeing their hardware upgrade for the 2024 model and knowing another is in store for 2025, prior to the next-gen rollout, shows how Toyota is quickly adapting to target mainstream consumers. That brings us to when the audience becomes ordinary showroom shoppers. A comment like "Come on" without context falls on deaf ears. |
| 4-24-2024 |
Delusional. This was awesome: "I'm not interested in going on and on with a delusional person who thinks Toyota is the best no matter what reality says." It came from someone who absolutely refused to provide any detail. It came from someone who started this argument: "That's all fine, but you still have a lackluster, half baked Toyota EV. There's so many other much better EV's out there." When I asked him to explain, he was the one that went on and on... but about nothing. Yup, it was one of those trolls who just used adjectives to convey hearsay. There's never any substance. He just plain does not like Toyota and refuses to even try to be objective. That's an invitation for me to provide detail of my own, an opportunity to share some experience & history. I did that. It angered him. So, I took advantage of the situation, using him as an example with: Watching enthusiasts paint themselves into a corner has always been a source of fascination. They present a "dead weight" argument against PHEV, then turn around and endorse BEV with capacity far in excess of ordinary need. They claim short range isn't worth it for the price, then argue that same range isn't enough when price is dropped. And naturally, they refuse to acknowledge not needing long range won't be needed when infrastructure catches up. Think about who is delusional. |
| 4-23-2024 |
Defending Tesla. Seeing offense turn to defense has been an interesting twist with the Tesla situation. Today's 2024 earnings call signaled trouble ahead. Musk is seeing a lot more resistance lately. Competing with China has resulted in harmful price drops. New owners are seeing resale value of their vehicle plummet, along with obvious regret from how much they could have saved from just waiting a few more months before purchase. And obvious, rollout of Cybertruck has been a disaster. Response from die-hard enthusiasts defending Tesla is to attack a scapegoat, like me. It's especially telling when they attempt to change the topic: "Classic john1701a -- shilling for Toyota. How are those hydrogen fuel cell vehicles working out?" You would think from out idiot former president that posting a what-about is an obvious tell you've got nothing constructive to say, so you will instead try to avoid the topic by changing it to something else. He continued on with that posting: "If Toyota gets a 3-row BEV on the road, you can be sure it will be..." followed by "...and Toyota ceases their anti-BEV lobbying, their vehicles are a sick, green-washed joke." Talking about doing everything in your power to evade the topic at hand. I tried my best to call out that obvious effort to evade discussion of the article's topic: FUD about the upcoming 3-row BEV won't change the fact that Toyota is targeting that audience. Tesla currently is not and an attempt to distract from that with a hydrogen what-about is nice confirmation of Toyota priorities being correct. |
| 4-23-2024 |
Useless Talking Points. It's nice to see others finally speaking out against those working to retain the status quo. No, I'm not talking about those defending traditional vehicles. It's those who don't want to lose their position as leader. In other words, no legacy automaker is ever allowed to deliver something better than Tesla. Ugh. It's a stereotype emerging they really should have been striving to avoid. But when I pull up to an occupied level-2 charger and see that the owner didn't plug in, you can bet it is a Tesla. Unfortunately, there is a 99% chance it's a Tesla. They emit that "vastly superior" vibe far too often, wrecking it for other Tesla owners... sending a bad message about infrastructure build up. What's the point of providing chargers if they aren't going to be used? Making it worse is similar behavior online. Rather than doing their part to help others, it's conveying a message that you bought the wrong vehicle. Ugh. Today, I jumped onto one of these posts doing exactly that, responding with: How many times has the "Should have bought a Tesla." comment been posted without any possibility of that advice being helpful? There is a massive audience simply looking for a practical means of making their situation work. Whether they already bit off more than they can chew or are looking to make the next step a cautious one, the point is they are trying. Treating them as poor schmucks is exactly the wrong thing to do. If they are stuck with only 120-volt charging at home of slow DC charging when about, help them make the most of it. Posting "I'll never go back to gas." is a waste of everyone's time... since it doesn't accomplish anything. |
| 4-23-2024 |
Day of Reckoning. Apparently, it is today for Tesla.
Investors got updates, some of which were not what they wanted to hear.
Inventory is piling up. Enthusiasts have been rather quiet.
Fortunately, those who try to be objective are not seeing pushback from
constructive comments, like: "Tesla has made a series of bad decisions. Spending development money on the
Cybertruck instead of a proper 3 row vehicle is one. The emphasis of full
self driving is another. The Model 2 is really only profitable if built and
produced outside of the country for non-US markets." I was all to
happy to jump in, posting: Ironically, delivery of a proper 3 row vehicle is exactly what Toyota has been focusing on... to be built in Kentucky, using batteries from North Carolina assembled with cathodes from Tennessee. That "behind" narrative turned out to just be a distraction from those bad decisions Tesla had been making. The new BEV from Toyota will be a regular Highlander replacement, ending ICE and Hybrid models. Only the extra large grand model will survive, which will only be available as a hybrid. With little for competition, full $7,500 tax-credit, and a native NACS port, it draws attention to Tesla's intent. As stated many times already, this is textbook Innovator's Dilemma. Focus was on refining what Tesla did best, rather than branching out to appeal to a wider audience. That classic trap set by enthusiasts of following niche has Tesla painted into a corner, who must now make painful next-step decisions. |
| 4-23-2024 |
Tacoma Hybrid. Details are now available... packages, prices, and of course efficiency. Seeing numbers so low rubbed one of the long time grumpy, old men the wrong way: "Doesn't look like we've come very far (23mpg)" It has been the same bunch of cynics for the past 20 years, but now market has appeal shifted from the easiest to hardest. Back in the day of Two-Mode, those were conquest sales. It was only a matter of stirring interest from those who were seeking opportunity anyway. We're long past that market. Enthusiasts are gone. All that's left are those who will fight to the bitter end to retain their gas-engine. Adding an electric-motor for the sake of increasing power and decreasing emissions doesn't seem worthwhile from a green perspective. Obsession with "saving gas" blinds some from seeing ways of getting those most difficult to accept change to actually change. You have to win them over with a break to the status quo so subtle, it almost goes unnoticed. To those still not getting it, I provided: Efficiency isn't the goal at this stage for that audience. Toyota is taking on the most difficult to appeal to shoppers, those "over my dead body" consumers. i-FORCE MAX forces the paradigm of ICE sunset. Advancing the entire fleet forward is what those "all in" legacy automakers have not addressed. They are still focusing on low-hanging fruit. Their status quo remains. Having 100% of Toyota customers owning vehicles with a battery-pack sets the stage for a much easier next step... plug-in hybrids for the most demanding consumer vehicles... pickups. |
| 4-22-2024 |
Saturation Point. We have reached it. When the market has more than enough supply to satisfy demand, then what? None of the enthusiasts absolutely insisting Tesla would magically be able to grow to 20 million sales annually can explain what's happening now. In fact, they have become completely silent. Funny how that works. No matter how much I pushed for them to explain how absence of an entry-level choice would allow for such growth, none ever replied. They ignore what they don't want to deal with. Heck, even dismissal is better. But from this, nothing. Fortunate for us, their silence enables others to get attention. For example: "Even with the price cuts, the desire for a Model 3 or Y from first time BEV buyers is probably reaching a saturation point. Tesla needs not just something new but sometimes affordable as well." I found that quite worthy of attention too: Ordinary consumers flee from more of the same. Continuing to refine Model 3 only makes sense in an already crowded market if it was used as a means of breaking into new market with an already refined system. Investors finding out that Tesla has no plans to counter BYD with entry-level offerings is bad news. In fact, unwillingness to compete in certain segments puts Tesla into the same category as some other legacy automakers... GM... Ford. |
| 4-22-2024 |
Software & Audience. Articles with a title like this will certainly get your attention: "Tesla Sales Declines Put U.S. EV Registrations Into The Red". My interest was stirred when I came across this in the comments: "Problem with Legacy auto makers is they are not software companies. They will continue to trail behind the likes of Rivian and Tesla. They make great cars with sh*tty software." Being a software engineer for over 3 decades, I am always intrigued by what people focus on for software. With regard to BEV evolution, it tends to be entirely on DC fast-charging speed. Sadly, traits like cooling & efficiency gets neglected, if not ignored entirely. Heck, remember all the so-called experts making remarks about range calling it "inefficient" simply because it couldn't travel as far per charge. That is as idiotic as basing efficiency on the size of the gas tank. Range is an aspect of battery size. Being able to drive further with the same amount of electricity as another EV makes it more efficient. Geeez! Some people don't think. So when it comes to software, where thought is required, we're basically doomed. What exactly makes Rivian and Tesla better? Notice how those making such claims don't ever provide that essential detail. Knowing that, I jumped in with: Well written software goes unnoticed. It's like really good CGI in movies. Most people don't even know what to look for. EV propulsion is a great example. So many here in this echo-chamber use Toyota as an example of an automaker who shunned EV, yet never noticed Prius Prime having delivered trouble-free EV drive (complete with heat-pump) since way back in 2016. Toyota just kept refining their code using all those years of real-world observation & feedback. Targeting ordinary consumers means criticism from enthusiasts may not provide much value for their audience who expects KISS software. |
| 4-21-2024 |
Worried About Charging Speed. I got this from a 2020
Hyundai Ioniq EV owner: "I am worried about the DC fast charging speeds compared to that of a Hyundai
Ioniq 5 or Kia EV6." Looking at bZ4X is a decent upgrade, but he
wanted to more from an owner. Reaching out to me tends to result in a
looong answer. Here's the insight I was able to share: Most people's worry about DC fast-charging is misplaced. They listen to enthusiasts obsessed with speed. Reality is we need to make better use of available electricity supply. Pumping 350kW through a heavy cord is absolutely absurd. Its is a want requiring expensive equipment at the sacrifice of need. In other words, when people travel, they want dependability. That means having enough working chargers so they can just plug in whenever they need to. Waiting in line just for the chance to plug in, you become aware of those messed up priorities. A large quantity of basic 62kW stations is far better than only a handful of 350kW. Spending 30 minutes while using the restroom, stretching out and getting food isn't the problem enthusiasts claim. This is why federal funding for DCFC along state corridors (the NEVI project) requires a minimum of 4 chargers each capable of 150kW service. Faster is overkill. All an owner really cares about when traveling is being able to plug in right away. The reason my interest has stayed with Toyota is they are targeting the masses focusing on those very priorities. They ignore enthusiast hype and haven't seen a benefit yet from future architectures, like the 800-volt system which delivers much faster DC charging. I purchased something that is very easy to endorse in terms of what people look for... reliability from a well-balanced offering. Price is high currently, but just like gen-2 of Prius, gen-2 of bZ4X will be a very good choice for the masses. |
| 4-21-2024 |
Unfounded Fear. There's nothing like an article starting with a line like this: "A tenant in Germany was shocked to receive a message from their landlord denying access to their already installed EV charger. The landlord's letter stated that charging electric cars was forbidden and that failure to comply would result in criminal charges. According to the tenant who shared the post, the landlord took action as a result of complaints from other residents." It was quite a gross over-reaction. There's nothing criminal about using electricity as a renter. In fact, most rental agreements simply state you will pay for utility use. People fear the unknown and the landlord clearly didn't want to face change. So, he responded with an empty threat. What I found interesting was how it could supposedly be forbidden. How? No clause in the rental agreement stating it's not allowed means it isn't forbidden. It's just electricity, which was already available. Heck, there in Europe, they naturally just have support for level-2. Unlike us, they only have the higher voltage. So, this matter is trivial. Ugh. Here's wisdom on the situation I passed along: I had a friend who found an elegantly simple solution to that very problem. She had an electrician hardwire an in-line meter to the charger. That device visible to all tenants accounted for electricity use, thereby eliminating concern for the unknown. Most people are clueless as to cost and jump to an assumption about that they will end up paying for your use of the charger. Seeing a meter assures them that usage is being monitored. |